No Normal Show by BPD

The interplay between Joe Public 2030 predictions

Episode Summary

Do Joe Public 2030's five predictions work in perfect harmony? How might one prediction work for or against the other four predictions? Hear The No Normal Show team and Revive's CEO, Joanne Thornton, discuss these questions and possible scenarios in which predictions play off of one another or clash altogether.

Episode Notes

Takeaways

Obligatory Super Bowl commercial commentary

• Joanne's favorite advertisements were Amazon's "Mind reader" ads for Alexa. She found it funny, albeit slightly alarming, as many already feel like Alexa can read their minds.
• Stephanie liked Coinbase's advertisement because it was a rare instance of a TV ad directly driving conversions. The ad was so successful that it resulted in millions of landing page hits in the first minute. Unfortunately, the app crashed momentarily due to a sudden influx of users. You can read about the campaign from the perspective of Coinbase CMO Kate Rouch in this blog.
• Chase liked how Toyota's "Keeping up with the Jones" spoke to multiple generations by starring famous "Jones" personalities from different decades.
• Chris' least favorite ad was "Old friends, new fun" by Meta because he felt like the narrative painted a depressing depiction of the future through the lens of Oculus headsets.

Why Joe Public 2030

• Joe Public 2030 is officially available for shipping on Amazon. If you'd like a copy of the book or would like to learn more about the book, check it out here.
• If you have thoughts on Joe Public 2030 or would like to discuss the predictions in-depth with fellow industry experts, the Joe Public 2030 LinkedIn group is a great starting point. Bring your ideas to the table, put ours on the chopping block, and dig into shaping what's next.
• Joe Public 2030's five predictions are based on insights from 250+ resource citations and interviews with 20+ industry experts. These projections do not work in perfect harmony with each other – and that's intentional. We wanted to paint an unbiased picture of the future that isn't anchored by a singular prediction or trend.
• It's important to think about the future even if it seems daunting because it plants seeds of thought that grow into action and equip us to navigate the future. Right now, hospitals and health systems are moving full steam ahead, trying to manage the pressures of today, a fact that can't be ignored when discussing ways health systems may need to future-proof their organizations.
• Joanne shared a quote from Jim Collins' book, "Good to Great" to demonstrate the urgency of healthcare's transformation for health systems: "You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end, which you can never afford to lose, with discipline to confront the most brutal cracks of your current reality."

How do Joe Public 2030's predictions fit together?

Copernican Consumer + Disparity Dystopia

• In the Copernican Consumer, the book predicts that AI, blockchain, and sensors will enable consumers to make their own decisions regarding their health. How will these new technologies impact health disparities in the U.S.? The "haves" will gain access to new technologies to improve their health, while the "have-nots" will continue to struggle to meet basic health needs.
• Disparity Dystopia predicts that unless a "moonshot" initiative happens in the U.S., health inequities will worsen over the next decade.
• The technologies that enable precision medicine like personal health monitors and genome-testing are incredibly costly, potentially exacerbating health inequities.

Copernican Consumer + The Rise of Health Sects + Constricted Consumerism

• The Rise of Health Sects predicts that mistrust of experts and political tribalism in the U.S. could result in multiple health sects that coalesce around political/worldviews and depend on "alternative facts."
• If consumers are increasingly enabled by technology rooted in mainstream medicine, how might health sects and their alternative medicine continue to exist? This question shines a light on the contradictory nature of some of our predictions.
• Similarly, the Rise of Health Sects may result in factors that contradict Constricted Consumerism because more health sects would offer consumers more worldview-specific options for their healthcare.

Copernican Consumer + Constricted Consumerism

• While Copernican Consumer promises a future of personalized medicine and personal health management, Constricted Consumerism posits that consumer choice in healthcare may actually be in jeopardy as payors become more selective in the services they choose to reimburse – specifically in costly higher-acuity settings.
• This sort of payor "choosiness" has long been in motion. Before the pandemic, payors selectively reimbursed virtual care. This stinginess gave way to needs brought on by the pandemic.
• Many payors still do not reimburse mental healthcare even though society is in a mental health crisis.
• With more healthcare industry entrants vying for lower-acuity services, the top of the funnel is becoming more accessible and less cost-prohibitive.
• The splintering of health ideologies already exists but may worsen over time, making it difficult for hospitals and health systems to provide clinically sound care to fragmented communities.
• The danger is that we're being lulled into believing these changes aren't happening or are happening incrementally. The pace of change propelled by technology will usher in a new reality that could make or break health systems' ability to survive.